Quo Vadis marketplace, – or what’s next…???

Hmmm…..

What’s happening next now ? Where is the market going with regards to our beloved bullpups ?? 🙄

I’m trying to polish my crystal ball here, – not an easy task. But it’s fun to sit back and try to analyse…. 😉

I have asked previously and will ask again. I know others have asked the same. How long will this bullpup craze last ???

My guess it’s here to stay. The number of people I know who has “converted” from “normal” guns is surprisingly high. And judging from feedback from various sources, it seems an increasing number of individuals now see their bullpup as their number one airgun to go to. There could be numerous reasons for that, – however size seems to matter, and accuracy has been documented over and over again. “Fashion” may be a part of it too….

Size of market ? I have no clue. The US alone counts some 250.000.0000 individuals. If 1% should own an airgun, – we’re talking some 2,5 mill. units. Probably a bit optimistic, – but whatever way you look at it, the marketplace is obviously quite big….

Now how many bullpups have entered the US market as of now ? Again I haven’t the faintest, – but my guess is we’re still not talking more than about a couple of thousand units at the most. Even that may be a bit on the high side judging from what can be seen from forums, producers’ reports and importers’ own information. Face it, – when a shipment of 100 units becomes a big deal, – the total number of bullpups already here cannot bee enormous. My figures may be wrong, and I’m waiting to stand corrected. However in my opinion, we are far from a “saturated” market as per today….

The players in the market are so far Edgun, Kalibr and now the upcoming P12 and twins. FX is a good runner up with their BobCat, and Evanix is in there too somewhere. May be a few others…..

It is fascinating to see how the different producers play their game.

The recent price drop from AOA indicates to me that they want their slice of the cake. Whether their price-drop is meant to put individual dealers out of business by squeezing their margins and later put the price up, – or drop the price to get more volume or both, I don’t know. However the Cricket price drop is a fact, – and AOA seems to firm the grip. Now IF they have signed a sole agreement with Kalibr, – my guess is it would have been as a trade off for more volume. Now, with the new Snowpeak P12 and clones, – that volume may not be quite as easy to achieve. The Cricket people may find themselves in a squeeze very soon. If they don’t lower the price even more, – they may find the biggest lump of the volume market may be eaten by the P12 and friends. The P12 potential seems huge if they play things right (quality control, return policies etc.)

Attacking the volume market and fighting the Chinese may have some undesirable side effects in the long run. I would never underestimate the ugly and unmanageable word “perceived” value of the product. The “identity” if you like. “Perceived value” is inevitably linked to price. Now if the Cricket people ends up spiralling down prices in order to master competition volumewise, it may be good for consumers in the short run. However quality and service is bound to suffer in a longer perspective. You may end up finding very few retailers around willing to support the Kalibr team because of low margins. The above is based on the pre-assumption that the Chinese have a lower cost of production.

In short: Our beloved “Crickets” (I love mine) run the risk of being perceived as an inferior product compared to other brands. IF the Kalibr operation has signed an exclusive deal with AOA, – they may actually have signed a deal with “the devil” himself. AOA will most likely start squeezing the Kalibr operation for margins very soon……..

Also I wouldn’t be surprised if AOA suddenly flags an exclusive deal with the Chinese. If that happens, cards may be reshuffled and redealt……….

I feel really sorry for guys like WWAG/Steve and their strive for an optimum customers service and their desire to be the best. So far they are quite unique, – but for how long ????

The AOA would most probably flag the BobCat as their top of the line bullpup. At least for now. Others may come onboard (Daystate ?) and compete. Both brands carry a “perceived” value which in my opinion do NOT reflect their “real” value. I think they’re overpriced for what they really are. In the case of FX, – it is seen as rather ordinary in other markets and not as “exotic” as you see it in the US. But there again: “perceived value” is something very difficult to define…….

Now, what about Ed in all this ?

What seems obvious is that he may not sell as many of his guns into the US as one could have expected only a year ago. And quite honestly I don’t think he cares much. He has a long list of buyers signed up at home. He hasn’t invested in a long and costly production line, and he seems to want to be in the business because he thinks its fun. His products may seem overpriced by many, but unlike all others there’s a “feel” that a part of Ed himself is in the package there somewhere. And while it is true that his arrogance sucks at times ( I have seen my fair share of that), that spareparts are few, return policies not to our liking etc. etc., – he has still proved over and over again that he somewhere down the road stands behind his product and will support you until the end after all. The Edguns may in my opinion “float around” in it’s own “niche” where price may not be seen as important for a long time still. And they may continue to win 100m contests as they have in the past.

What a beautiful position to be in……….

My two cents (probably not even worth that much…….) 😳

What do you guys think will happen……?

Cheers
Trygve :biggrinn: